His Plan B was a dramatic change of course.
Mattarella has now tapped Mario Draghi, Europe’s onetime top central banker, to try to rescue Italy from political chaos. The thinking is that if Italy’s fragmented parties could not cooperate to reform a government, perhaps a high-profile figure — dropped suddenly into the political scene — might win enough backing. But there is no guarantee Draghi, widely credited with saving the euro, can do the same for Italy.
Why did Italy turn to Draghi?
In the most basic explanation, it was Mattarella’s choice. Italy’s president tends to play a background, ceremonial role in normal times, but he has tremendous powers during periods of political crisis — and he has the option to handpick a premier he believes has the best chance to form a majority.
So he called on Draghi, who in recent years had become almost a mythical figure in Italian politics. For politicians dissatisfied with the status quo, Draghi was the name they floated as a best-case alternative.
Mattarella could have called for new elections, rather than giving Draghi the chance to form a government. But he made it clear, in speaking to the nation Tuesday night, he badly wanted to avoid a protracted campaign season and a lame-duck government, particularly given the urgency of the pandemic. Italy will soon receive a windfall of recovery money from Europe, and Mattarella felt like Draghi — an economist with years of training as a crisis-fighter — could manage that spending more competently than others.
Who is Mario Draghi?
Draghi, 73, is best-known for leading the European Central Bank during its most tumultuous period. His eight-year term (2011-19) coincided with a double-dip recession, the near-insolvency of several large nations (including Italy), and the perma-threat of Greece’s debt crisis. For a while, it looked like some combination of the multiple emergencies might pull the euro zone apart.
Draghi helped ease the crisis, in part with his much-cited pledge — in 2012 — that he would do “whatever it takes” to shore up the euro. He also championed a massive bond-buying program, and tested the limits of how dramatically a central bank could act.
But his legacy is complicated, and in Italy, he is still sometimes associated with his calls for bruising austerity measures. European growth lagged behind that of the United States, and though the hardest-hit countries made it through the crisis, they were left to deal with towering debts, high youth unemployment and simmering discontent toward Brussels.
Can Draghi form a government?
Pundits say Draghi has the best chance of anybody to bring the factions together. But even he might not be able to pull it off.
The mainstream parties of the left, center-left and center-right figure to support Draghi. But those parties are a minority of Italy’s parliament. So Draghi needs more. In short, he would need the backing from at least one of — or parts of — the populist or anti-establishment parties that have long pitched voters on their opposition to technocrats and elites.
The parties on the far right — the League and the Brothers of Italy — have seemingly little motivation to support Draghi, as they would be heavy favorites to win power in new elections. But the League’s calculation could be more complicated, as it draws support from a business-heavy base in the north that might crave the stability of a Draghi government.
Then there is the Five Star Movement, a party of anti-establishment digital utopias whose tenets have become increasingly muddled during their two-plus years in power. On Tuesday night, the party’s acting leader came out strongly against Draghi. But it is far from certain whether the whole party will follow suit. Though the Five Stars were once clearly anti-Brussels, some members have edged closer to the European Union establishment. And members have one more extra motivation to back Draghi: It’s the one way to stave off elections, where the Five Star Movement, once the most popular party in Italy, would get trounced.
“A part of the Five Stars have become the establishment,” said Massimiliano Panarari, who has written a book on the party. “The Draghi effect could potentially blow up the Five Stars, cleaving them in two.”
What is Italy’s experience with nonpolitical governments?
Though it might seem strange for a president to handpick an unelected figure and task him with forming a technocratic government, it has happened before in Italy — several times. Italy’s most recent experience, though, did not go well, and the memory lingers as a warning for Draghi.
During the financial crisis of 2011, with Italy’s borrowing costs soaring, Silvio Berlusconi stepped down. His replacement, Mario Monti, was handpicked by then-president Giorgio Napolitano, much in the way Draghi has been. Monti was a former E.U. commissioner and a well-respected economist. But his job was grim, instituting unpopular reforms and increasing the retirement age. He lasted in office little more than a year, and his tenure helped jump-start a new wave of Italian populist sentiment while damaging the prospects of those who’d backed him.
Draghi is far different than Monti and has years of political experience, having dealt with the bloc’s competing interests during his time at the ECB. He’d also have a more enviable task than Monti, doling out the E.U. money rather than making cutbacks, said Wolfango Piccoli, the co-founder of the Teneo consultancy firm.
But Piccoli said that Draghi, if in power, would also face difficult decisions about whether to extend a soon-to-expire moratorium in layoffs. If the policy ends, the full weight of the economic crisis would come into view, quickly breeding government discontent.
“The risk here is that a Draghi government could be the springboard” for the far right, Piccoli said. “That is where the drama will emerge.”
What about elections?
If Draghi cannot form a majority, either he or somebody else will guide the country — in a caretaker role — toward new elections.
If the current sentiments hold, a vote would most likely vault a far-right coalition, including the League and the Brothers of Italy, to power. That would give Italy the only Euroskeptic government in Western Europe.
Mattarella has argued against an imminent vote. But the League’s leader, Matteo Salvini, said Wednesday that voting in the spring was surely possible, noting that a portion of the country will already head to the polls in April for regional and municipal elections.
Giorgia Meloni, the leader of the Brothers of Italy, whose party has support from about 15 percent of the electorate, said on Twitter that she did not think the solution to a health and economic crisis was “another government born in the palace.”
“In democracy,” she said, “citizens are masters of their own destiny through voting. Especially when the situation is difficult.”
Stefano Pitrelli contributed to this report.
