Stocks were mixed while commodity prices rallied, as rising Treasury yields and expectations of higher inflation weighed on equity prices.
The S&P 500 pared some losses but held lower intraday, and the index was on track to add for a fifth straight day of gains, for the longest losing streak since February last year. The Dow recovered earlier losses and turned slightly positive. The Nasdaq sharply underperformed, dropping more than 1.5% as tech shares came under more pressure.
Some commodity prices performed more strongly, however. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude oil futures (CL=F) and Brent crude futures (BZ=F) both jumped after Goldman Sachs strategists said in a note Monday that they expected Brent prices to reach $70 in the second quarter and $75 in the third quarter this year amid rising demand. WTI crude oil has already gained 23% this year and exceeded prices from the same time last year.
Prospects of fast-rising inflation during this year’s expected economic recovery have pushed bond prices lower and yields up sharply. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note (^TNX) briefly ticked above 1.39% on Monday to reach a fresh one-year high, increasing the specter of higher borrowing costs for companies. Prices of copper jumped above $9,000 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, marking the highest level in nine years as tightening supplies, rising inflation and notions of significant infrastructure programs out of the U.S. and other countries led to expectations of increased demand.
Since strong COVID-19 vaccine efficacy data was first announced in November, traders have been positioning for the likelihood of a strong economic growth later this year, as the vaccine distribution eventually allows more businesses to reopen. As such, many traders have been rotating away from the high-growth tech stocks that led the indexes higher for much of last year. Instead, they have favored more economically sensitive equities and asset classes in anticipation of a post-pandemic recovery.
“Equity fund inflows have rebounded sharply during the past few months alongside optimism around an economic recovery. The rotation into equity funds has most favored strategies that benefit from accelerating economic growth,” Goldman Sachs strategists led by Arjun Menon said in a recent note, based on an analysis studying 507 equity mutual funds. “[Emerging market]-focused, small-cap, value and cyclical sector equity funds have experienced the largest inflows. The secular migration into ESG-focused funds has persisted, and we expect this trend will accelerate under the unified Democratic government.”
Moreover, about 57% of mutual funds have outperformed their benchmarks in 2021 so far, representing the highest share at this point in a year in nearly a decade, the strategists added.
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1:53 p.m. ET: U.S. has so far administered more than 64 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines as death toll approaches 500,000: CDC
The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in the U.S. has so far seen just under 64.2 million doses administered to Americans as of Monday morning, according to an update from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Additionally, 75.3 million doses have so far been delivered to states, inclusive of both Moderna’s and Pfizer’s and BioNTech’s vaccines. The latest update comes as the COVID-related death toll in the U.S. nears a half a million, according to data from Johns Hopkins.
Winter weather across much of the U.S. has weakened the pace of vaccinations over the past week, though a deluge of additional inoculations are expected to be available in the coming months. Approximately 145 million doses are poised for delivery in the next five-and-a-half weeks, and another 200 million are expected by the end of May, according to the Associated Press. The Biden administration is currently handily tracking toward achieving its goal of administering 100 million doses in President Joe Biden’s first 100 days in office – so far, some 45 million doses have been administered since Inauguration Day on January 20.
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11:38 a.m. ET: S&P 500, Dow pare losses while tech shares slump
Here’s where markets were trading as of 11:38 a.m. ET:
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S&P 500 (^GSPC): -19.81 points (-0.51%) to 3,886.90
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Dow (^DJI): +2.17 points (+0.01%) to 31,496.49
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Nasdaq (^IXIC): -210.75 points (-1.5%) to 13,664.50
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Crude (CL=F): +$1.86 (+3.1%) to $61.10 a barrel
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Gold (GC=F): +$32.50 (+1.83%) to $1,809.90 per ounce
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10-year Treasury (^TNX): +0.5 bps to yield 1.35%
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9:44 a.m. ET: ‘It’s the right thing to do’: Yellen restates call for robust fiscal stimulus, reaffirms support for $1,400 direct checks
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen doubled down on her call for another significant fiscal package to combat the COVID-19 crisis in the U.S., suggesting that the benefits of measures like President Joe Biden’s proposed $1,400 stimulus checks would ultimately do more good than harm to the economy.
“The principle of wanting to get money targeted to those who have suffered the most is an important and valid principle. And the American Rescue Plan does that in many different ways though targeted food assistance, unemployment compensation, some rental assistance for low income people who face eviction, and in other ways, and that’s pretty well-targeted,” Yellen told Andrew Ross Sorkin during The New York Times DealBook DC Policy Project webcast. “But the truth is, there are pockets of pain that go beyond what can be reached in those highly targeted ways.”
“Take the example of people who have had to drop out of the labor force because they have children who weren’t in school, so they face a loss of income. Many are not eligible for unemployment insurance. And some of those face food insecurity,” she added. “You’ve got 24 million adults who say they don’t have enough to eat … 15 million people who are behind on their rent. And it’s not so easy in a highly targeted way to help those people.”
“So my view would be that the checks for example, $1,400 checks. Of course we don’t want those to go to very high income individuals and households that have been less affected. But that really helps to make sure that pockets of misery that we know exist out there that aren’t touched by the more targeted things, that help is provided there as well,” she concluded. “And I believe we’re going to be better off for it, and it’s the right thing to do.”
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9:30 a.m. ET: Stocks open lower
Here’s where markets were trading Monday morning:
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S&P 500 (^GSPC): -25.86 points (-0.66%) to 3,880.85
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Dow (^DJI): -174.33 points (-0.55%) to 31,319.99
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Nasdaq (^IXIC): -152.41 points (-1.1%) to 13,719.36
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Crude (CL=F): +$1.36 (+2.3%) to $60.60 a barrel
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Gold (GC=F): +$18.80 (+1.06%) to $1,796.20 per ounce
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10-year Treasury (^TNX): +1.2 bps to yield 1.357%
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9:14 a.m. ET: Bitcoin prices sink 10%, pulling back from record highs
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) tumbled Monday morning as the cryptocurrency’s prices retreated after a rapid run-up so far this year.
Bitcoin was down about 10% to about $51,400 as of 9:15 a.m. in New York, after rising to a record high of more than $57,600 over the weekend, according to Bloomberg data. the cryptocurrency has still maintained sharp year-to-date gains, however, after entering 2021 at just over $31,000.
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8:36 a.m. ET: Chicago Fed National Activity index points to more growth in January
The Chicago Federal Reserve’s National Activity Index increased more than expected in January as personal consumption improved more than forecast, reaffirming the strong rebound in consumer spending reflected in last week’s retail sales report from the Commerce Department.
The Chicago Fed’s index increased to 0.66 in January from a downwardly revised 0.41 in December. Beneath the headline index, the contribution of personal consumption and housing together rose to 0.35 in January, reversing directionally from -0.06 in December. While employment and production-related indicators both held in positive territory in January, they decreased slightly from December.
Consensus economists had expected the index to increase to just 0.45 in January, according to Bloomberg data. The index posted a positive reading for a ninth straight month in January.
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7:19 a.m. ET Monday: Stock futures point to a lower open
Here’s where markets were trading ahead of the opening bell:
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S&P 500 futures (ES=F): 3,874.00, down 29 points or 0.74%
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Dow futures (YM=F): 31,254.00, down 179 points or 0.57%
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Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): 13,395.25, down 180.75 points or 1.33%
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Crude (CL=F): +$0.51 (+0.86%) to $59.75 a barrel
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Gold (GC=F): +$18.30 (+1.03%) to $1,795.70 per ounce
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10-year Treasury (^TNX): +2.9 bps to yield 1.374%
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Emily McCormick is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter: @emily_mcck
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