The Grammys is an institution on the precipice. More than a year ago, on the eve of its 62nd ceremony, the Recording Academy was rocked by its biggest scandal yet. President and CEO Deborah Dugan (only a year earlier, she replaced executive Neil Portnow, who was ousted after telling women they need to ‘step up’ if they want to win Grammys) was removed from her position amid allegations of bullying from an assistant. Dugan denied these charges and responded with a 44-page complaint to the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission that “accused the academy of retaliating against her for uncovering misconduct including sexual harassment, voting irregularities and rampant conflicts of interest among board members.”
All of this took place as the Recording Academy was, at least publicly, working to reverse its long history of racial and gender blindspots. The institution’s woeful recognition of hip-hop and R&B in the main categories has resulted in an exodus of top tier talent from even showing face at the annual broadcast. It’s a hard history to rebound from: Despite Billie Eilish’s historic sweep of the major categories, ratings for the 2020 Grammys fell to another record low.
Now, ahead of the 63rd annual Grammy Awards, and there’s not only a pandemic to contend with, but more controversy. After his shocking snub from this year’s list of nominees, the Weeknd tweeted in November that “The Grammys remain corrupt. You owe me, my fans and the industry transparency…” On March 11 he said that he will no longer submit his music to the Grammys. His statement echoes the same complaints that Jay-Z, Rihanna, Frank Ocean, Drake, and many others have made for decades. Zayn Malik, Justin Bieber, and three of the nominees for Best Children’s Album also loudly bashed the Grammys this year.
So with the biggest names in music loudly condemning what was once the biggest honor in music, you’ve got to wonder, what do the Grammys mean in 2021?
That question will certainly hang over Sunday’s broadcast, though the list of nominees provide glimmers of hope for a better path forward. Beyoncé, Taylor Swift, Dua Lipa and Roddy Ricch picked up the most nominations. Plus, Haim and Megan Thee Stallion and Phoebe Bridgers are also all deserving nominees who should take home trophies. That all seems good on paper, except their names appear among some truly clueless choices (Coldplay!? In 2021!?). And Beyoncé has been snubbed by this institution throughout her entire career—even Adele had the good sense to apologize when her latest LP beat out Bey’s opus, Lemonade, at the end of the night in 2016—and offering a slew of nominations after a year in which she didn’t actually release an album feels like too little too late.
With the stage set, let’s take a look at who will—and who should—win in the major categories at the Grammys this year.
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Album of the Year
Chilombo, Jhene Aiko
Black Pumas (Deluxe), Black Pumas
Everyday Life, Coldplay
Djesse Vol. 3, Jacob Collier
Women in Music Pt. III, Haim
Future Nostalgia, Dua Lipa
Hollywood’s Bleeding, Post Malone
Folklore, Taylor Swift
Should Win: Folklore, Taylor Swift
Will Win: Future Nostalgia, Dua Lipa
This is a category that includes three very good albums from Dua Lipa, Taylor Swift, and Haim. Dua’s is the defining pop record of 2020. Swift’s is the breathtaking, indie singer-songwriter moment she’s always been capable of. Haim’s is the statement record they’ve been building up toward their entire career. It’s hard to think of a more perfectly suited pandemic Album of the Year than Folklore, which is why it seems like an ideal fit here. And since she is actually performing at the ceremony, one would imagine she’s almost guaranteed a historic win from a voting body that adores everything she does. Taylor is one of only two women who have won Album of the Year twice (along with Adele). A win for Folklore would make her the only woman to ever win in this category three times. However, given the Academy’s love for shiny studio pop music, Nostalgia does seem like a lock, especially considering their attempt in recent years to appeal to younger crowds.
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Record of the Year
“Black Parade,” Beyoncé
“Colors,” Black Pumas
“Rockstar,” DaBaby and Roddy Ricch
“Say So,” Doja Cat
“Everything I Wanted,” Billie Eilish
“Don’t Start Now,” Dua Lipa
“Circles,” Post Malone
“Savage,” Megan Thee Stallion
Should Win: “Savage,” Megan Thee Stallion
Will Win: “Don’t Start Now,” Dua Lipa
“Classy, bougie, ratchet.” There isn’t another record nominated here at the Grammys that was as ubiquitous and quotable in 2020 as Megan Thee Stallion’s “Savage.” The only other contenders are The Weeknd’s “Blinding Lights” and Megan’s “WAP” with Cardi B, both of which were not nominated. A viral hit, a dance craze, a cultural moment—”Savage” is hands down the most deserving winner here. However, the Grammys have a long track record of nominating hip-hop acts in the major categories but never giving them actual trophies. That is almost certainly what’s going to happen here—especially if they give Megan Best New Artist as a consolation prize. Dua Lipa’s “Don’t Start Now” is certainly the most likely winner here.
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Song of the Year
“Black Parade” (Beyoncé)
“The Box” (Roddy Ricch)
“Cardigan” (Taylor Swift)
“Circles” (Post Malone)
“Don’t Start Now” (Dua Lipa)
“Everything I Wanted” (Billie Eilish)
“I Can’t Breathe” (H.E.R.)
“If the World Was Ending” (JP Saxe and Julia Michaels)
Should Win: “Black Parade” (Beyoncé)
Will Win: “Black Parade” (Beyoncé)
Here’s a depressing fact: Beyoncé has been nominated for 79 Grammys and has only won once in a major general category. It’s criminal. And it’s the perfect example of all of the most despicable flaws of the Grammys. This is an award that should have gone to Beyoncé a half dozen times before (she won Song of the Year for “Single Ladies” in 2009), and winning it here will feel like too little too late. But this is the most deserving winner in this category—though there’s no knowing if Beyoncé would even show up to accept it. I’m doubling down on this one because I’m trying to be an optimist, but in all reality the Grammys will give this to their darling Taylor Swift.
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Best New Artist
Ingrid Andress
Phoebe Bridgers
Chika
Noah Cyrus
D Smoke
Doja Cat
Kaytranada
Megan Thee Stallion
Will Win: Phoebe Bridgers
Should Win: Megan Thee Stallion
With all respect to Kaytranada, this is a showdown between Phoebe Bridgers and Megan Thee Stallion. Both Phoebe and Megan dominated the conversation of music throughout 2020 and beyond. They released era-defining records, they smashed norms (and guitars), they crushed streaming numbers. As much as I love Phoebe, this is an award that should go to Megan Thee Stallion for releasing music that fearlessly gave a middle finger to music establishment. She pissed off Ben Shapiro, and there should be an entire award just for that. However, Phoebe is the likely winner here, because if there’s one thing the Grammys love it’s giving an award to guitar music over hip-hop.
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