Nearly a yearlong bull run among industrial metals is faltering this month as the unwinding of a massive stimulus in China slows demand, underscoring the increasingly pivotal role its state-led economy plays in global commodity booms.
China last year put some $500 billion in state investment to prop up its pandemic-pummeled economy. The stimulus drew massive imports of everything from crude oil to steel. With Beijing wanting to be a global leader in clean energy, many in the resources industry viewed the boom as the start of a yearslong growth arc, or “supercycle,” especially among metals crucial to electrification and batteries.
A budding global economic recovery helped the rally. But China, which accounts for as much as 60% of the world’s resource consumption, has in recent weeks pulled back from its investment-led playbook, as policy makers refocus on containing bad loans and retooling the economy onto a consumer-led footing. Amid fresh concern that some battery-making metals could be globally oversupplied, benchmark metals fell in March from records a month earlier—nickel by 18%, cobalt 13% and copper 9%.
“You’d call it a supercycle only if you forget about the corrections,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Asia-Pacific chief economist at investment bank Natixis . “The fundamental signs are of a cyclical recovery, but we are also talking about a world that needs less commodities.”
Chinese purchases had spurred rallies in many metal markets in the 12 months to late February, doubling some prices from pandemic lows. Copper imports last year rose by 34% year-over-year to a record 6.7 million metric tons. Cobalt imports were up 45%. The vast shipments shook other parts of the world, with home-appliance makers in India, for instance, scrambling to find copper. Electric-vehicle producers outside China fretted over battery supplies. Japan maxed out its power plants as it ran low on natural-gas imports.
