Charles Michel, crisis manager (and inciter) – POLITICO

As an ex-prime minister of Belgium, a country known for its fierce regional divisions and fractious government negotiations, European Council President Charles Michel likes to boast he is an expert in defusing political crises. At times, he also has a flair for instigating them.   

Last week, Michel was in the second mode, detonating a political grenade by proclaiming the EU to be the only Western manufacturing center of coronavirus vaccines shipping doses internationally, which is true, and accusing the U.S. and U.K. of imposing an “outright ban” on exports, which in Britain’s case, at least, is technically false.

It was hardly the first time that Michel, who is now halfway through his two-and-a-half-year term, purposely or inadvertently played fast and loose with facts.

Sometimes, it is a tactic in pursuit of a policy objective, as when he stretched credulity by insisting at his first European Council summit as president in December 2019 that EU countries had unanimously agreed on targets to become climate neutral by 2050.  In fact, they reached consensus only by giving Poland an exemption, meaning 26 countries committed to the goal, while one country kept thinking about it. Unanimity!

Other times, Michel fibs — or bluffs — to try to put himself at the center of political action. In January, largely sidelined as the European Commission clashed with AstraZeneca over a shortfall in vaccine production, Michel suddenly warned the EU might invoke an emergency provision in its treaties to potentially force vaccine makers to share patents. Some experts said his legal basis was far-fetched, and such a move was unlikely.  

And still other times, a gaffe is just a gaffe, as when Michel, on the eve of a high-stakes leaders’ summit last July to negotiate the EU’s new budget, published a newsletter that included a new top-line figure unexpectedly wiping out €75 billion from the package. The new total briefly sent diplomats and officials into panicked gyrations, until Michel’s office blithely issued a correction that restored the original figure of €1.82 trillion.

Whether this is art or artifice, Ninja-like acumen or clumsy ambition, or some combination of all of the above, remains unclear.

For EU politicians, officials and diplomats, Michel’s efforts to attract attention can be a source of frustration or of amusement. But he has undoubtedly managed to assert a stubborn relevance in EU affairs that goes well beyond what some of the bloc’s 27 heads of state and government intended when they tapped him to succeed Donald Tusk as coordinator of their agenda and master of ceremonies at their periodic summits.

Tusk, a former Polish prime minister, was widely viewed as too widely viewed (and heard) in a job designed to assist the national leaders who are responsible for taking the decisions, and some leaders clearly hoped Michel would view the post more as a chairman.

Michel, however, has refused to fade into the background like some black-clad theater worker changing set design between musical numbers sung by others.

If anything, he has proven even more visible than Tusk, making official trips outside the EU — even as European citizens are told to avoid nonessential travel — and at times pushing the boundaries of his official duties.

Georgian mission

Earlier this month, for instance, Michel inserted himself into a domestic political crisis while on a visit to Georgia, where he unexpectedly presided over an impromptu late-night negotiating session between the government and opposition parties at the presidential palace in Tbilisi, the capital.

In an interview after his return, Michel recounted emotional conversations with some officials who were furious about the jailing of Nika Melia, the leader of the main opposition party, who was seized during a violent raid on his headquarters.

The opposition parties, while overwhelmingly pro-EU, also disagreed with the EU’s generally positive assessment of a parliamentary election last fall, which they denounced as marred by irregularities and protested by refusing to take their seats.

Michel said he turned to a trusty trick: self-deprecating Belgian humor.   

“I told them: Listen I don’t know Georgia very well, but … I come from Belgium, and in Belgium, we are experts in political crisis. You can count on me to be innovative,” Michel said.

In the end, the opposition attended the late-night meeting and agreed with Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili on a six-point plan — hastily typed onto a single page — for restarting political dialogue. Since then, Michel has appointed Christian Danielsson, a Swedish diplomat, as his envoy to Georgia, to oversee the continuing talks.

The circumstances of Michel’s visit were confirmed by multiple officials in Tbilisi who met with him, and who praised his willingness to intercede and follow up.

“It was a helpful joke,” said Giga Bokeria, a leader of the Movement for Liberty – European Georgia Party, referencing Michel’s ice-breaking, though he noted Georgia’s situation was far more perilous than Belgium’s notoriously protracted coalition talks.

“The plan he came up with is good,” Bokeria said. “Mr. Michel’s visit is giving a lot of hope.”

Salome Samadashvili, a leader of Melia’s United National Movement Party and former Georgian ambassador to the EU, said Michel’s decision to appoint an envoy showed a welcome commitment to following through on his initiative.

“I think it’s very encouraging the EU has continued to be involved in this [in a] very close and very hands-on way,” she said.

That view fits with the assessment of officials and diplomats in Brussels and European capitals, who said that however inelegantly Michel might fib, fudge, bluff or gaffe his way to an outcome, he keeps to his end of a deal once it has been reached.

Underestimated or underwhelming?

On a Continent with eminent politicians like German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and more animated leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron, or even antiheroes (for Brussels anyway) like U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, it is easy to see why Michel is often underestimated, and to some tastes a bit underwhelming.

He is a liberal in the EU capital long-dominated by conservatives. Now at age 45, he is a soft-spoken son of former Belgian Foreign Minister and European Commissioner Louis Michel. And some fellow Belgians say Charles Michel’s main skill while rising to prime minister was carrying his father’s name.   

He is also part of an EU leadership slate, led by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, that was clearly intended not to outshine or outmaneuver the national leaders who gave them their jobs.

But among that crew, only Michel can count himself as a former national leader around the Council table. Von der Leyen is a former German defense minster. Josep Borrell, the foreign policy chief, was a foreign minister in Spain. David Sassoli, the European Parliament president, is a former journalist little known outside Italy.

In that context, even critics of Michel say he has managed to fill voids where they have emerged, and to capitalize on the desire of national leaders to curb the Commission’s inherently federalist tendencies. He has won praise, shared with von der Leyen, for steering leaders to a historic deal on the €1.82 budget-and-recovery package last summer and for organizing monthly virtual Council summits in a bid to coordinate the pandemic response — even if the results of those meetings have sometimes been meager.

Some officials and diplomats in Brussels said his unorthodox approach to negotiations — nicknamed the “Michel method” during his years as prime minister, involving apparently endless meetings of different permutations — was met with skepticism but ultimately proved useful at the EU level.

Yet in steering Council summits, Michel has at times caused consternation by unexpectedly shifting the order of agenda items, or by unveiling new draft conclusions at the last minute — injecting an element of surprise he argues is useful to disrupt those with entrenched positions and reach deals, but that EU diplomats say merely undermines the careful preparations typically required for leader meetings to succeed. 

And not everyone gives him credit for the budget-and-recovery package. Some involved in the discussions said the historic deal on €750 billion in joint debt for the recovery was hatched largely by Merkel and Macron, and that the urgency of the crisis, rather than any strategic effort by Michel or von der Leyen, made a deal inevitable.

Given his narrow official role, some said Michel also has the advantage of being able to take credit when the EU does well, but letting the Commission or capitals take the blame for any missteps.

“It’s not an easy period for any kind of leader,” said one EU diplomat, noting there had been numerous missteps, but that overall Michel had conducted himself well, including by maintaining extremely close contact with each of the 27 leaders of EU member countries. On Wednesday, Michel held a videoconference with the leaders of Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Latvia and Slovenia.

“He had this initiative of bringing everybody together, the monthly meetings,” the diplomat said, adding that Michel had pushed back on the tendency of leaders in a crisis to turn inward. “There are difficulties and not everything goes as we expected, but I think it’s [the case] for everybody.”

As seen on TV

At other times, though, Michel’s attention-seeking ploys have drawn groans, such as when he granted unprecedented access to the Council for a television crew to film a documentary about himself — including during the July summit when the press was barred from the building for health reasons.

Groans also went up last week after Michel published his accusation of an outright ban on vaccine exports by the U.K. and the U.S., which seemed unnecessarily inflammatory given that he could have simply boasted about the EU’s undeniable role as a supplier of vaccines to countries worldwide.  

In response, one senior EU official cuttingly derided Michel as “a liability.”

Michel’s allegation immediately drew forceful denials from the U.K. government and a personal denunciation from Johnson, the British leader. But far from apologizing, Michel leaned in, as is often his way, and used the episode to mount perhaps the strongest defense yet of the EU’s vaccine program, which he argued is being unfairly maligned.

In the interview with POLITICO, he insisted with a smirk that there were many ways (outright or not) to restrict exports, and he challenged Johnson to release data proving Britain was shipping vaccines beyond its own borders. So far there has been no reply.

Commission figures show Britain has received more than 10 million vaccine doses manufactured in Europe, a statistic that Michel’s allies say clearly undercuts London’s narrative about its own vaccine program as a Brexit success story. They also noted that millions more doses were going to other countries worldwide, including Rwanda and Kenya, which Michel visited earlier this month to draw attention to the EU’s efforts to help developing nations.

Von der Leyen also effectively brought in the cavalry behind Michel on Wednesday, warning that vaccine exports could be restricted to vaccine manufacturers that don’t help supply others — a clear shot at London, and a sign the Commission supports the tougher line Michel had set.

“I am certainly the last who would make things more difficult,” Michel said in the interview, defending his criticism of the U.K. “It’s not my spirit — certainly not. But I make sure that Europe is respected, and I make sure that what we decide is well understood.”

At the same time, Michel said he wanted to stay focused on the need for cooperation both with the U.S. and U.K. to protect supply chains for materials to produce vaccines, and for a potential international treaty on pandemics that he has proposed.

Some leaders have said such a treaty would be redundant with existing agreements under the World Health Organization. But Michel insists that it is necessary, in part to clarify issues such as supply chains and international cooperation.

Determined defender

The question of respect will also be at the center of a strategic discussion at this month’s European Council summit over relations with Russia.

The gathering follows a disastrous visit by Borrell to Moscow, and it comes amid tensions over the jailing of opposition figure Alexei Navalny, for which the EU recently imposed sanctions on four top Russian officials.

“It’s not acceptable,” Michel said of Russia’s treatment of Borrell. “And I repeat that Europe is not intimidated and we will promote our values, we will defend our interests.”

But it’s not clear that European citizens, who are still grappling with the pandemic and its economic fallout, have much patience to hear about the EU’s interests from a former Belgian prime minister now presiding in Brussels over lengthy meetings of over-stressed government heads. Some of those heads have been bashing the EU of late without much basis.

In the interview, Michel said that as a former national leader, he sympathizes with the frustration both around the Council table, and across the Continent.

“I totally accept and understand the impatience of our citizens everywhere in Europe and also the impatience of the leaders,” he said. But he stood by his provocative defense of the EU’s vaccine record, making clear he saw that move as a core part of his role as Council president — whether the pushback is against the U.K. or embers of the Council.

“It’s my job,” he said. “It’s my responsibility to put the points over the I’s and to make clear what we did, and what’s the goal, what’s the purpose of what we are doing.”